Compared with the blooming of 1Xnm semiconductor technology, the single-digit process is much more monotonous. Many semiconductor companies that shine in 1Xnm have encountered difficulties in the 7nm process. With AMD’s Queen’s foundry company GF announced an indefinite postponement 7nm process technology, the only remaining 7nm process and only TSMC can achieve mass production at this stage, whether it is Huawei's Kirin 980 processor or Apple's A12 processor, they all chose TSMC as the foundry. In this winner-takes-all semiconductor industry, TSMC seems to occupy half of the country, especially the advanced process technology of 7nm. The chip industry is also showing a polarization between the rich and the poor as the process becomes more difficult.
Why is the 7nm process so difficult?
When discussing the difficulty of the 7nm process, we need to popularize a concept of quantum mechanics, which can help us understand why the cost of the low process has increased sharply, that is, the quantum tunneling effect.
In quantum mechanics, the quantum tunneling effect refers to the quantum behavior of microscopic particles such as electrons that can penetrate or traverse a potential barrier, even though the height of the potential barrier is greater than the total energy of the particle. In classical mechanics, this is impossible, but the theory of quantum mechanics can give a reasonable explanation.
In layman terms, it means that when the process technology reaches a certain level, the distance between the circuit and the circuit is reduced to a certain level, and the quantum tunneling effect will appear. These electrons show a law of motion that we don’t know. As a result, these uncontrollable electrons have caused the leakage rate of semiconductors to rise sharply. Too much energy is wasted in controlling the movement of electrons. Naturally, the transistors can’t perform as they should. Macroscopically, the processor’s heat generation increases, but the performance There is not much change.
Of course, there is no way to completely eliminate the quantum tunneling effect. After all, this is a natural law. Even quantum mechanics is not fully grasped, so we can only reduce the occurrence of this situation. This means that manufacturing materials need to be re-developed, and the investment in this cutting-edge technology may be a bottomless pit, and a large amount of money may be invested. The final results may not be satisfactory. The sunk cost is too high, so there is only sufficient funds. Only then can we invest in the research and development of newer processes.
And there is another important factor to realize the low-distance process, that is, the lithography machine, which is called the flower of the modern optical industry. The realization of the 7nm process is inseparable from the operation of the high-performance lithography machine. Among them, the Dutch ASML is almost monopolized. Increased the share of the world’s top lithography machines.
As we all know, lithography machine is a high-precision instrument with high manufacturing cost and long manufacturing time. Among them, the NXT2000i lithography machine, one of ASML's latest lithography machines, has a single price of hundreds of millions of dollars, and the NXT2000i lithography machine is also available for 7nm. Even as the best weapon for the future 5nm process, although the price of lithography machines is high, there are endless pursuits. In addition to TSMC, Samsung and Intel have also invested heavily in pursuing this excellent performance lithography machine. In the case of limited output, even if other chip process manufacturers have the right process, they do not have an excellent performance lithography machine. Can't make excellent foundry. This is another reason why the cost of 7nm process chips has risen sharply and mass production is difficult.
Besides TSMC, who else?
Of course, in addition to TSMC, there are other semiconductor companies pursuing 7nm process technology, including Samsung and Intel. Unlike TSMC's pure foundry, Samsung and Intel have their own industrial chains, which means they can be self-sufficient. Of course, this is also an important factor for survival in the 7nm era.
Chip foundry pays attention to the scale effect. The initial investment requires a large number of chips to share the huge R&D costs. At the same time, the chip foundry industry is also a business activity. The pursuit of the company is profit. If there is no profit, I believe everyone will lose money. They are not willing to go on for a long time.
Samsung and Intel, which have complete IC designs, naturally have a large number of chip requirements to meet their own chip foundry industries. Even if there is no foundry, they can still meet the production capacity of the 7nm process independently, and other chip foundries may not be so lucky. For example, GlobalFoundries Advanced Process Manufacturing Co., without orders for AMD’s latest Zen 2 and Navi graphics cards, naturally has much less motivation to promote the 7nm process. There is no order and no profit, resulting in insufficient R&D funds to invest in advanced processes. Process development is in progress.
The "Matthew Effect" gradually appeared
The Matthew effect refers to the phenomenon that the strong become stronger and the weak become weaker. It is widely used in the fields of social psychology, education, finance, and science. The Matthew effect is a term commonly used by sociologists and economists. It reflects the social phenomenon of polarization, with the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. The "Matthew Effect" also applies to the 7nm chip industry. In this winner-takes-all industry, TSMC has won a large number of orders with the first implementation of the 7nm process, and AMD has also announced the future Zen 2 and Navi graphics cards. TSMC’s OEM will be made. Massive orders will satisfy TSMC’s 7nm appetite. Naturally, it will be able to share huge research and development costs, while also earning a lot of profits for further process technology. This virtuous cycle also makes TSMC’s Earnings are rising steadily.
Other chip foundry companies may not be so comfortable. They did not take the lead in occupying the high point of 7nm, and then lost customer orders. At the same time, they did not have enough budget to invest in research and development, so they would naturally withdraw from the chip. The competition in the industry is coming. The entire chip industry is also in an oligopolistic situation with rising thresholds. Unless there is a black technology that greatly reduces the manufacturing cost of advanced processes, it will be the technology giants who can turn the chip foundry now and in the future.
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