GM’s self-driving subsidiary Cruise, which shoulders the responsibility of traditional auto companies to fight Waymo, has received a total of US$5 billion in investment from Japan’s SoftBank and Honda this year to develop driverless taxis that can safely drive on the streets of San Francisco. It plans to launch driverless taxi services in 2019 ahead of Waymo, Uber, and Lyft.
Cruise's financing amount of up to 5 billion US dollars is by far the largest amount of financing in the field of autonomous driving. So, is this investment by SoftBank and Honda worth it? Can Cruise launch its driverless taxi service in 2019 on time?
01
Commercialization is not yet ready
The latest news shows that currently Cruise has encountered unexpected technical challenges, and it is even difficult for Cruise self-driving cars to confirm whether objects are in motion.
This means that it is very unlikely that GM driverless cars will be introduced to the market on a large scale before 2019. A general source even stated that "nothing went according to plan" and pointed out that the company had missed many goals and milestones that could have been achieved.
Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt said last month that the use of driverless cars to provide taxi services will help Cruise quickly recover its high technology investment, faster than trying to sell self-driving cars to a few individuals who can afford to respond.
More importantly, the driverless taxi business allows Cruise and GM to provide route customization services based on technical capabilities, until the software and sensors are good enough to allow autonomous vehicles to travel anywhere. Vogt believes that it is expected to provide driverless taxi services in 2019.
However, some people close to the project still admit that the normal operation of the driverless taxi business will take longer and more funds. The managing partner of SoftBank, Michael Ronen, who is about to join Cruise's board of directors, also admitted that Cruise is not ready for commercialization, and believes that the question now is who will succeed as quickly as possible.
02
There is a big problem with the technology
According to descriptions by one and three former Cruise employees, it is still difficult for Cruise's self-driving cars to determine whether objects on the road are dynamic or static, because the vehicles hesitate when they pass by a row of parked autonomous cars or motorcycles. Jue finally stopped.
Two other sources said that the automated driving system sometimes fails to recognize pedestrians and mistakenly sees the phantom of the automated vehicle, which causes the vehicle to brake irregularly. In addition, the fourth former employee and nine other people familiar with Cruise technology said that Cruise used to develop open source software for autonomous driving technology, slowing the speed of data from sensors to car processors.
Vogt said that the planned next-generation software, hardware and sensors will help solve the above problems and provide performance. Vogt believes that the above problems are avoidable problems in the testing and development process, because sometimes systems will be mixed together for testing.
Vogt finally stated that safety is a prerequisite for Cruise, and that the aforementioned problems will be resolved before the driverless taxi service is officially provided.
However, a spokesperson for the San Francisco Fire Department said that Cruise did not follow the regulations to share data with the San Francisco Fire Department. Autopilot test vehicles must do so to ensure safety.
03
To waste billions of dollars?
GM’s stock price has fallen by more than 20% this year, and GM attaches great importance to autonomous driving technology. Therefore, Cruise shoulders a heavy responsibility. The investment of SoftBank and Honda will depend on whether Cruise achieves the corresponding goals.
Of course, Cruise’s competitors are also facing challenges. For example, Uber’s self-driving test vehicle had to completely change its development plan after a fatal accident, and even suspended related businesses, but an official of the company still stated that Uber’s automatic Driving technology has made progress, and corresponding safeguards have been established to improve the overall functions and safety of autonomous vehicles.
Klaus Froehlich, a member of the BMW board and director of research and development, said that everyone in the industry is increasingly worried that GM Cruise will waste billions of dollars in funds.
SoftBank said that it has considered the setbacks of this technology in the US$2.25 billion investment agreement reached by Cruise. According to GM’s public documents, one of the provisions is that only when Cruise can be completely unmanned More than half of SoftBank’s investment will be credited when the vehicle is deployed for commercialization.
SoftBank's Ronen said this is a venture capital because these are unproven technologies.
Honda announced last month that it would invest US$2.75 billion in Cruise. Its executive Seiji Kuraishi said that through the cooperation with GM, it has seen the potential of Cruise. However, most of the investment will be made in 2019 after the announcement of Cruise. Pay within the year.
04
Challenges that may last ten years
General Motors President Dan Amman once called for the development of self-driving cars that can drive on city streets more safely than human drivers, and considered this to be an "engineering challenge of our generation", which would require years and billions of dollars in funding. Develop.
Amman believes that GM is still at the starting line and has a long way to go. Only when Cruise's autopilot system meets the established safety standards will it be displayed and released to regulators.
Cruise has not yet provided cruising unmanned taxi services to the public because these autonomous vehicles will not be able to drive without a safety officer. The California State Motor Vehicles and Utilities Commission stated that the company has not yet applied for a permit to carry passengers without a safety officer. .
According to the statement of Cruise's departing employees, soon after being acquired by General Motors in 2016, Cruise's management internally admitted that it would face a decade-long technical challenge.
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