Why did the polysilicon company fall first?

The photovoltaic industry, which was suffering for the whole year from 2012 to 2011, finally reached a glimmer of hope at the end of the year. The stable recovery of product prices in all aspects of the industry chain and the “immediate outbreak” of major installation sites in Europe not only contributed to the strong ending in 2011, but also added new bargaining chips in 2012.

However, OFweek Industry Research Center's photovoltaic analysis department pointed out that looking at the Chinese PV market before and after the Lunar New Year, besides the expected start of the application of the Golden Sun demonstration project in 2012, the negative factors still prevailed. First, on January 30, the U.S. Department of Commerce made an emergency decision in the China Solar Battery (Board) case and decided to retroactively impose anti-subsidy taxes, that is, after the initial determination of the countervailing duty rate, the taxation will start from 90 days in advance.

Secondly, in the second half of 2011, after the German and American companies, the closure tide finally hit China's PV companies. However, it was not the leading rumors of Suntech Power, LDK, etc., but the little-known Zhejiang Xiecheng Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. the company. The resulting polysilicon investment bubble has begun to show signs of disruption. As of today, there are a total of 43 polysilicon companies in the country that have stopped producing more than 30 companies, which is an extremely pessimistic argument that 80% of companies have stopped production.

According to Siro, a senior photovoltaic analyst at OFweek Industry Research Center, although the objective environment of the global photovoltaic industry has gradually improved since the fourth quarter of 2011, at the same time, under the influence of multiple internal and external factors, the industry's reshuffle process has become unstoppable. The trend. Many old photovoltaic companies in Germany, the United States, and other countries and regions have fallen one after another. It is not so much a derivative of the overall downturn in the industry as it is the inevitable outcome of the development of the photovoltaic industry to a “special stage”.

In this reshuffle process, the controversial Chinese PV companies have naturally been unable to "safeguard themselves." Only the polysilicon companies that first fell, not the battery module companies, were considered "Chinese characteristics" different from other countries and regions. What are the reasons behind this?

According to Siro, senior analyst of PV at OFweek Industry Research Center, it is naturally an internal factor. Due to the lack of core technologies for a long time, the majority of domestic polysilicon companies lack market competitiveness, and the company’s profit margins and even losses are not in the minority. Combined with the promulgation of conditions for entry into the polysilicon industry at the beginning of 2011, the survival space for SMEs has become increasingly difficult, and the "winter" that can be carried out almost all the year round is already "a tough end."

Second, the constant erosion of market share by international predators is also a key factor in reducing the survival space of Chinese polysilicon companies. In this regard, the industrial environment faced by overseas PV module companies is similar to that of most Chinese polysilicon companies. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why the two companies have fallen first.

Returning to China to compare, although China's photovoltaic cell module companies have not necessarily had a better day, but compared to the polysilicon link "oligopolistic" industry structure, the space for battery components is obviously greater. Therefore, it is easier to "keep it up."