On April 3, the U.S. Trade Representative Office (USTR) formally announced a list of proposed tariffs on Chinese products. The U.S. trade representative proposed to impose an additional 25% tariff on Chinese products on the list to make up for the technological losses suffered by the United States.
The list of products covers 1,300 individual tariff items, valued at approximately US$50 billion (314.4 billion yuan), targeting the “China Manufacturing 2025†ten key emerging and high-tech industries, including aerospace, information and communications technology, machinery, and energy , smart cars, pharmaceuticals and medical industries, LED, PCB, laser equipment, semiconductor equipment, resistors and capacitors, thyristor diodes, TV terminals and some parts and components of the electronics industry chain are listed.
If the taxation list is finally implemented, the overall impact of the US tax declaration on China’s 301 taxation on China’s high-tech industry will not be too large. However, observations from individual categories and in the long-term will likely delay domestic related industries. Technological progress and development process. In addition, it is not ruled out that as the tariff increases, the price of domestic related consumer goods rises and the purchasing power of domestic residents decreases.
The following is a comprehensive analysis of the details of the list and the combination of domestic industry developments by the team of analysts at the global market research institute.
The U.S. intends to hinder the development
IC is one of the key areas of the Sino-US trade war, but the team of analysts of the state-level consultancy thinks: Overall, this list has a limited impact on the Chinese semiconductor industry.
Specifically, the list of electroplating / electrophoresis / electrolysis equipment, physical meteorological deposition equipment, cleaning equipment and other related products of the IC industry chain exports to the United States accounted for very low proportion of sales, so the impact is almost negligible.
As for products such as capacitor resistance, although the influence of local manufacturers on exports to the United States is usually less than 10%, and given that the current capacity of the capacitor resistance cannot be opened in the short term, the factors such as shortage of stock prices still exist, and local manufacturers can Operational market allocation space is relatively large, and it can largely absorb the limited impact brought by the list.
In fact, China's semiconductor industry is still in the initial stage of domestic alternative import, and for a long period of time, the main target market is still in the Chinese mainland, and the external export data will not change significantly in the short term.
However, Jibang Consulting believes that from a macro perspective, the United States behind this trade list reflects concerns about the rapid rise of China's science and technology industry, especially concerns about the rise of China's integrated circuit industry and its determination to hinder the development of China's integrated circuit industry. Can not be ignored.
Trade wars have negligible impact on the LED industry
In addition to integrated circuits, the LED industry is also an important target for the current US tax collection.
The U.S. hits the domestic LED industry mainly in the upstream chip and backlight segments, including 85414020 (light emitting diodes), 85419000 (diodes, transistors, similar semiconductors, photosensitive devices, semiconductor devices, LED and piezoelectric crystals), and 90330020 (with LCD Backlit LED) These three categories of products.
In response, LEDinside Consulting believes that these projects account for a very low proportion of the total export value of China's LED industry. Only within 5% of the industry's export value, the proportion of direct exports to the United States is even lower. . China's actual export to the United States is a relatively large proportion of downstream applications, such as lighting products category items 94540090, 94051000, etc., but not within the limits of this list.
Therefore, this taxation list has little impact on China's LED industry. For LED downstream application companies in the United States, it may instead increase direct procurement costs. Therefore, it is expected that the incident will have little effect on China's LED industry.
Trade Warfare Inspiration: China's Auto Industry Needs to Master Core Technology as Quickly as Possible
For the automotive sector, the scope of the current taxation list in the United States is mainly reflected in sensors and navigation devices used in autopilot and motors and batteries used in new energy vehicles.
Sensors and navigation devices are the key technical support for future auto-driving of automobiles. However, US manufacturers in these fields have an absolute advantage. Therefore, China's exports to the United States are small, and the impact is almost negligible.
As for the motor and battery, it is the core of new energy vehicles. At present, the domestic battery products of the Ningde era are exported to BMW, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and other automobile enterprises. The proportion of exports to the United States is not large, and the final impact will not be great.
Jibang Consulting believes that although there will be little impact on the domestic smart networking industry and new energy automobile industry in the short term, it will even help Chinese companies gain the space and opportunities for independent technological innovation and strengthening the strength of independent intellectual property rights. In the long run, however, when the industry enters a stage of intense competition and China has not yet mastered core technologies, the tariff list may hinder China from mastering the core technologies of low carbon, information, and intelligence in automobiles.
Therefore, for the domestic automobile industry, it is necessary to grasp the core technologies of smart driving, motors, and batteries as soon as possible.
China's new energy is still constrained by the Sino-U.S.
As regards new energy, as 301 covers electromechanical related equipment, the industry is most concerned with inverter and stand products.
However, the list of this publication does not include inverter products. Among the three materials commonly used in photovoltaic stents, stainless steel, aluminum alloy, galvanized carbon steel, and hot-dip zinc, galvanized carbon steel and heat Zinc-leaching products are not listed in this 301 clause. The application of aluminum alloy in photovoltaic stents is much larger than that of stainless steel products, but the aluminum alloy materials used in the photovoltaic stents and component frames are also not on the list.
According to the judgment of Energy Trend, the state-level energy research center (EnergyTrend) has no direct impact on China's photovoltaic industry. Currently, the solar trade relationship between China and the United States is mainly limited by the trade barriers such as Sino-US anti-Seoul, and Article 201. Since the list of 301 articles does not include solar energy products, the solar energy trade between China and the United States will still be implemented in accordance with existing trade barriers.
Other high-tech industries
In addition to the above-mentioned key high-tech industries, the list includes PCBs, laser equipment, displays, and foot prints.
Among them, the PCB project list mainly relates to TV applications, and local PCB manufacturers export to the United States also less, so little impact on the local PCB.
The list of laser equipment is mainly used in metal processing and printed circuits. China's total laser-related equipment exported to the United States in 2017 was approximately US$ 46 million, with minimal impact on local Chinese manufacturers. Take Dazu Laser as an example and export it to the US annually. The proportion of laser equipment is only about 1%.
It is worth noting that the list refers to downstream monitors and color TV products. Each year, China exports more than 20 million TV products to the United States. In 2017, it reached 22.96 million units worth US$4.55 billion. This will produce a certain amount of TV brand manufacturers in mainland China. influences.
According to the analysis of the above-mentioned team of the state analysts, in the short-term, the list of tax products released by the United States in addition to the TV brand manufacturers will have a certain impact, the impact on the LED, photovoltaic, automotive, semiconductor and other industries are limited, even in the To a certain extent, it is beneficial to force Chinese companies to innovate independently and accelerate the domestic substitution process. However, in the long run, this may hinder China from mastering the core technologies in the fields of automobiles and semiconductors.
The direction of this trade war can not immediately give a conclusion, but how the two sides balance their concerns and appeals will be the focus of the next two sides.
It is worth noting that the latest news that US President Trump suddenly announced a "friendly tweet" on April 8 said: "China will remove trade barriers. Taxes will be mutually beneficial, and both parties will reach an agreement on intellectual property rights. There is a bright future!†The tone of this tone of easing is very different from what Trump announced a few days ago through the White House. While attending the opening ceremony of the Boao Forum for Asia, Chinese President Xi Jinping also stated that "China does not aim at pursuing a trade surplus and sincerely hopes to increase imports and promote current account balance."
Although the trade dispute between China and the United States is still “beating†on your way to and fro, both China and the United States have also released signals that they are willing to negotiate and ease the contradictions. We hope that both sides can handle trade disputes as soon as possible in accordance with the principle of peace and friendship.
Wuxi Doton Power , http://www.dotonpower.com