New energy vehicles carrying the dream of China's "curve overtaking" have recently become the focus of attention of all parties. Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments did not respond, many industry insiders confirmed that the new energy vehicle integration policy originally scheduled to be implemented in 2018 will be postponed for one year. Although the policy of 8% of new energy points in 2018 has been abolished, the proportion of new energy points in 2019 and 2020 remains unchanged at 10% and 12%.
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"Now many car companies are not ready yet," Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, said in an interview on September 7. "If the new energy vehicle points policy is extended for one year, it will provide more for car companies." The long buffer period is conducive to the smooth transition of the enterprise and the market." Dong Yang, the executive vice president of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, also publicly expressed the hope that the policy will be postponed for one year.
However, Yin Chengliang, deputy dean of the Automotive Engineering Research Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University, believes that the double-point policy can bring a three-year gold development period to new energy vehicles, which cannot be delayed for one year. Otherwise, the first-mover advantage of China’s new energy vehicles will not When it reappears, the situation will become more severe. Su Hui, vice president of China Automobile Dealers Association, also believes that the double-point method should not be delayed any more. The sooner the company can be implemented, the faster it can adapt. It should let the policy spur the car enterprises and accelerate the development of new energy vehicles.
Insufficient points or discontinued
What is the double point? This is from the “Interim Measures for the Parallel Management of Enterprise Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Points (Draft for Comment)†issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on September 22 last year (referred to as “double pointsâ€). Compared with the previous encouraging policies, this time it is “moving the real thingâ€. If it is not up to standard, it will be suspended from reporting the car catalogue and suspending the production or import of the corresponding number of traditional car models.
Taking the new energy vehicle points as an example, for the passenger car enterprises that produce or import more than 50,000 vehicles in China in the year, from 2018 to 2020, the new energy vehicle integral ratio requirements are 8%, 10% and 12% respectively. Among them, each pure electric vehicle can accumulate 2 to 5 points depending on the driving range, and 2 points for hybrid vehicles with a cruising range of more than 50 kilometers such as HEV/PHEV.
Simply put, Volkswagen, which sells 3 million vehicles in China, needs to receive 240,000 new energy points in 2018, that is, at least 48,000 pure electric vehicles, or a corresponding number of hybrid vehicles that match the points standard. .
If you don’t meet the standards yourself, you can’t do anything, buy them! According to the “new energy vehicles, positive points can be freely traded, but can not be carried forwardâ€, non-standard car companies can purchase from surplus car companies. Otherwise, it can only accept the suspension of the declaration of the car catalogue, and suspend the penalty for the production or import of the corresponding number of traditional car models.
Cui Dongshu told reporters that although China has formed a relatively complete support system for new energy vehicles, in the past, it was mostly encouraged and lacked a new energy support system for sustainable development. With the fall in oil prices, the demand for new energy vehicles is not strong, the enthusiasm of car companies is not high, the attitude is not determined, the launch of new products is not strong, and there is no trend to keep up with the transformation and upgrading of automobiles. The double-point policy is undoubtedly a "strong heart" for car companies to develop new energy vehicles.
A new round of marriage between Chinese and foreign auto companies
The double-points policy is considered to be another masterpiece to continue to promote new energy vehicles after the subsidy system is abolished in 2020. However, as Cui Dongshu said, “It is difficult to meet the standards next year, whether it is a joint venture brand or a self-owned brand.â€
Taking the public as an example, the annual sales of new energy vehicles in China is now several hundred. It is not easy to achieve the goal of tens of thousands of units in a short period of time.
Such a car company with a certain technical reserve like Volkswagen is still the case, not to mention other car companies with relatively weak technical reserves.
Therefore, Volkswagen and Ford, whose own new energy technology is not strong enough to launch a large number of products in the short term, have chosen to cooperate with independent brands such as Jianghuai and Zhongtai, which have small volume but have more sales of new energy vehicles. In the field of new energy The Renault-Nissan Alliance, which has a strong technical accumulation, has formed alliances with companies with strong production capacity such as Dongfeng.
The industry generally believes that without the pressure of the double-point policy, the desire of Chinese and foreign auto companies to cooperate in research and development of new energy vehicles is simply not as strong. Cui Dongshu believes that even if it is postponed, it will not slow down the pace of this new energy transformation.
The "flash marriage" under the policy, in a certain way, just violates the significance of the implementation of the double-point policy. Dong Yang once made it clear: "The ultimate goal of the implementation of the double-points policy is to promote energy-saving and emission-reduction of automobiles, and continue to promote the development of new energy vehicles in China after the subsidies have subsided and cut off." As soon as possible to make up for negative points, but did not play a role in promoting the market.
What is also worrying to many people is that the strength of the joint ventures will be different, will it lead to the technical dominance of the new energy joint ventures in the hands of foreign parties? Wang Binggang, the leader of the national new energy vehicle innovation project project team, once admitted: the most unwilling to see Yes, when the government subsidized new energy vehicles in 2020, faced with the strong involvement of foreign-funded enterprises, independent brands, like the traditional automobile industry, only made low-end products.
Regarding this issue, Cui Dongshu believes that unlike the market-changing technology in the automobile joint venture project 30 years ago, the current joint venture is a social responsibility for foreign-funded car-buying companies. Compared with the past, the joint venture is a foreign-invested technology to make money. .
The implementation of the policy is delayed, giving the company a certain buffer period, leaving foreign companies with sufficient time to produce new energy vehicles with Chinese partners, and there is no reason to “start another stoveâ€.
Self-owned brands are expected to recapture the main battlefield
In contrast, BYD, Zotye, BAIC, SAIC, Geely, Jianghuai, Chery and other independent brands, the difficulty of completing the points task is less than the joint venture car, and even generate more positive points for sales.
To this end, many people believe that traditional independent new energy vehicles represented by BYD, Geely, Beiqi, SAIC, etc., will become the target of many “multinational corporations†and “combined and horizontalâ€. Its extra new energy points will also become the object of competition for everyone, they will become the big sellers in the points market. This is also a good time for the independent brand to counterattack, and it is expected to help it regain the main battlefield.
"If the double-points policy can be implemented on schedule, it will bring tangible benefits to independent brands and will occupy a larger market share in the short term." Cui Dongshu said. Yin Chengliang also believes that double points are an effective constraint on foreign car companies. “If it is postponed, after three years, the advantages of self-owned brands will be gone, the joint ventures will rise, and the prices of spare parts will be lower. There are traditional advantages such as brands. How do you compete with others?â€
However, Cui Dongshu pointed out: "After all, the leading companies are only a minority, and most of them are not complete." He believes that the recent capacity improvement of independent brands is mainly designed at the application level, but the basic design technology of automobiles is poor, and there is a lack of foreign new energy vehicles. The object of imitation, in the short term, naturally can not make a good car. At present, it is still mainly based on sales of restricted cities, and the demand for other non-restricted cities is not strong.
The reason is that he believes that the first is the technological gap in the industrial chain, the domestic battery technology is not strong, and the actual performance of new energy vehicles is poor. Secondly, the oil price is low, the new energy cost is not high, and consumers do not want to buy new energy vehicles. Third, the industrial chain is weak, and the core components of new energy vehicles are poorly manufactured. “Deferred one year is also a good thing for independent brands.â€
In Cui Dongshu's view, the general direction of developing new energy vehicles in China will not change. Automobile enterprises should strengthen technical circuit research and planning, strengthen industrial chain cooperation, accelerate cross-border integration, build a new collaborative research and development system; implement power battery upgrade projects, increase the promotion and application of new energy vehicles; use new energy vehicles and intelligent network vehicles as Break through, accelerate cross-border integration, build a new industrial ecology, drive industrial transformation and upgrading, and achieve large to strong development.
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